Imagine you were a turkey on a brisk October day, happily clucking away.
If you were to predict the future from looking at the recent past, you would have little reason to worry.
Every day your owner has fed you well and made sure you are healthy; you may, therefore, confidently predict that your owner loves turkeys and that the future for you looks rosy.
On Thanksgiving Day you would be in for a shock when the owner pulls out a knife to slit your throat and have you for dinner.
People who believe past information is all that they need to become astute investors are like such turkeys who may remain lucky for some time believing they are smart investors ( even though they have never taken time out to learn and get educated about investing )
They start believing after experiencing a lucky phase that investing is easy and past performance data is all that’s needed to be on the fast track to wealth creation.
Ironically even washing clothes and dishes is seen by these same people as specialised jobs.
Like the turkey, one day this kind of rear view mirror thinking will shock them leaving them high and dry not knowing what hit them.
Before being over confident about investing remember “past performance need not have a bearing on future performance” and “investing” is as specialised a field as any other profession.
If it’s not possible for an ordinary person to become a doctor by searching for health solutions on Google same way it’s not possible to be an investment professional because of access to past performance.